This week
With the sun out and the Summer Solstice in Salisbury finished for another year, what could be better than heading off up the road to the Glastonbury Festival the following weekend?
Having come a long way since its inaugural year in 1970, when it was attended by just 1,500 people, admission was just £1, which also including free camping and a free pint of milk. Audiences enjoyed a headline performance from Marc Bolan's T-Rex, who played in place of the Kinks who had earlier cancelled.
This week market watchers also enjoyed quite the festival of data, which had more in common with the annual gathering in central Somerset than you may think.
Acting as the opener for the week were German Retail sales data, showing an unexpected fall of 1.6% in May compared with the previous month. The data acted in concert with an earlier consumer confidence survey of around 2,000 people, which found a recent increased willingness to save amongst shoppers, due to continuing tariff uncertainty.
Across on the main stage, we had the British Services sector expanding at the fastest rate in nearly a year during June. However, business expectations for the year ahead were shown to have weakened slightly, with the news that many firms were worried about political and economic uncertainty, in part due to the impact of Donald Trump's erratic tariffs.
Interestingly, the survey also showed continued pressure on companies from labour costs, reflecting an increase in employers' National Insurance contributions and a nearly 7% rise in the minimum wage.
In terms of data releases, the undoubted headliner for the week was US Non-Farm Payroll figures, measuring the amount of Americans who joined the labour force during the previous month.
Figures showed that 147,000 Americans gained employment, compared to the 110,000 predicted by economists. Job gains mainly occurred in state government and healthcare sectors, whilst the Federal government continued to shed roles. Collaborating with the payroll data, was the overall unemployment level, which fell to 4.1% from 4.2% the previous month. Interestingly, the average workweek was shorter last month, suggesting that businesses were probably reducing hours amid rising economic headwinds.
On the back of the news, the stronger data decisively closed the door on a July Fed rate cut that had been opened in recent weeks by Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Michelle Bowman, who had both called for early action to pre-empt any incoming labour market deterioration.
Complimenting the jobs data was unemployment claims figures, measuring the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Coming in slightly lower than anticipated, the numbers differed from the sleeping conditions of those making their way to Glastonbury this weekend, a little less in-tents than previous readings.
Next week
The beginning of the week provides the perfect building blocks for the coming days, with both Sunday and Monday hosting the annual BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit held in Brazil. This years’ gathering marks the first time that the bloc convenes as an expanding group, with Vietnam admitted as a “Partner Country” gaining access to discussions and partnerships for development collaboration.
Continuing the building theme, Monday also sees high street lender, Halifax, releasing its House Price Index numbers, measuring the change of value for properties on its books. With the housing market about as hot as the recent weather, many looking to move house will be hoping for no clouds on the horizon as house prices sit near record highs here in the UK.
By the middle of the week, we can count down the hours until the US Federal Reserve issues its minutes from the last policy meeting. The release will act as a detailed record of the central bank’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates and should have a strong impact on global markets. With tariffs starting to increasingly dominate the economic landscape, it will be interesting to hear what those at the Fed make of it all and how it will affect their decisions on rates going forward.
A busy week should be rounded loff by the Office of National Statistics, as it releases its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures on Friday. GDP is hugely important and acts as the broadest measurement of an economy’s health and will be monitored carefully in both Westminster and at the Bank of England, hoping for any signs that the still fragile economy is gaining momentum.
Thabe information in this blog or any response to comments should not be regarded as financial advice. If you are unsure of any of the terminology used, you should seek financial advice. Remember that the value of investments can go down as well as up, and could be worth less than what was paid in. The information is based on our understanding as at 4th July 2025.